Cary, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS62 KRAH 200656
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 AM
EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisory has been expanded to cover much of the eastern
  Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain including the Triangle
  Area, Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, Fayetteville, and Southern Pines.

* Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly late this afternoon
  into the evening.

* Flash Flood potential continues to increase for portions of the
  eastern Piedmont through the Coastal Plain Friday and Friday
  night. Severe storms also possible Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 AM Thursday...

1) Today will be the last day in this series of high heat and
humidity. Heat indices of 105 to 109 in the Heat Advisory area.

2) There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening. The highest probabilities of damaging
wind gusts are from in the north-central and NE part of the region,
from the Triangle to Roanoke Rapids. There is also a threat of a few
severe storms within the Piedmont trough this afternoon.

Another threat of wet microbursts Friday afternoon and evening.

3) A wet period is expected for most areas of central NC Friday into
Friday night. The highest probabilities of heavy rainfall are in
much of the area Friday and Friday evening (east of the Triad
region), shifting to the east of I-95 Saturday. Locally very heavy
rainfall (2-4+ inches) and a few instances of flash flooding will be
possible, especially from the Triangle Area south and east through
the I-95 corridor Friday into Friday evening. The Triad should still
get 1+ inch of rain for the event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Heat Advisory is in effect for a good portion of
central and eastern North Carolina through 800 PM this evening.
Today will be the last day in this series of high heat and humidity.
Heat indices of 105 to 109 in the Heat Advisory area.

There is a pattern change coming, but we will have another day with
high heat and humidity ahead of the approaching trough/cold front
that will arrive later tonight into Friday. Expect mostly sunny
skies for much of the day as a warm front will surge well to our
north this morning. It will be very late today before the pre-
frontal trough approaches the Triad and northern Piedmont from the
north with the threat of a few thunderstorms. Since most of the day
will be mostly sunny highs will top out well into the mid 90s
outside of the far NW Piedmont where 90 will be likely in the Triad.
Low level moisture will be on the increase dew points in the lower
to mid 70s, mixing out into the upper 60s NW. Therefore, the heat
indices will likely reach advisory criteria of 105 to 109 this
afternoon. In addition, the experimental HeatRisk product has
expanded the high and extreme risk deeper into the heart of the
state. The Heat Advisory will run late morning through 800 PM.

The chance of some cooling thunderstorms will increase from the
north late this afternoon and evening as outflow boundaries approach
the Triad and Triangle Areas.

Key message 2... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
late this afternoon into the evening. The highest probabilities of
damaging wind gusts are from in the north-central and NE part of the
region, from the Triangle to Roanoke Rapids. In addition, a lesser
threat of a few severe wind gusts will be possible within the
Piedmont trough this afternoon.

The Piedmont trough is expected to become enhanced during the
afternoon and there should be scattered thunderstorm development
within the trough this afternoon with strong heating and
increasing instability. A few of these storms may produce
damaging wind gusts with peak heating mid to late afternoon.

A more formidable chance of thunderstorms and severe threat will
likely exist later today into the evening over north-central and
eastern NC.

CAMS continue to indicate late today into the evening as the
most favorable timing for scattered thunderstorm development.
As a mid-level short wave trough tracks east from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast through this evening, a
25-35kt SW H85 flow will develop a top the increasingly
unstable boundary layer, strongest over the NE part of NC later
today.

Thunderstorms that track across MD/VA this afternoon should
send outflow boundaries southward into northern and eastern NC
this evening. Thunderstorms may either track ESE or develop on the
boundaries as they move SE into our region after 500 PM. Some storms
may merge into clusters as they interact with the Piedmont trough.

The main threat will be a few damaging wind gusts between 500 PM and
1000 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A wet period is expected for most areas of central
NC Friday into Friday night. The highest probabilities of heavy
rainfall are in much of the area Friday and Friday evening
(east of the Triad region), shifting to the east of I-95
Saturday.

Locally very heavy rainfall (2-4+ inches) and a few instances
of flash flooding will be possible, especially from the Triangle
Area south and east through the I-95 corridor Friday into
Friday evening. The Triad should still get 1+ inch of rain for
the event.

Models continue to hone in on east-central NC for a heavy
rainfall event Friday into Friday night. This seems to be a
sweet spot for 2-4+ inches of rainfall given the cold front settling
south into the region, strong convergence, strong and deep
instability, and very high PW`s of 2.25+ inches. The shear will
become weak supporting very slow storm movement and merging cells.

Had there not been a relatively dry several weeks over most of
the region, we would have a Flash Flood Watch out for Friday and
Friday night for the NE Piedmont into the Coastal Plain. However,
antecedent conditions are relatively dry, with FFG values running
higher than normal. However, if the heaviest rain falls in urban
areas such as Fayetteville or Raleigh, flash flooding appears
likely. The models suggest possibly the Triangle or just to the
south and east may have the highest risk, yet a swing of 50 miles or
so in upcoming forecasts will have significant ramifications to the
forecast. Expect a portion of the region to have a Flash Flood Watch
issued later today or tonight if models continue to focus on the
same east-central portion of NC into SC.

In addition, the strong instability south of the front Friday with
MLCapes of 2500+ J/kg and weak shear suggest wet microbursts will be
possible, thus a marginal risk of severe storms will exist along and
ahead of the front by early afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail across most of
central NC through Thursday morning, but there is a chance of patchy
fog and low stratus in mainly the eastern Sandhills and Coastal
Plain (including FAY and RWI) from about 09z-14z as low-level
moisture return increases with the flow turning southerly. Any fog
or low stratus will lift/scatter out by mid-morning.

Scattered cumulus and mid/high clouds are expected through the day.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop in the south
and east (including RDU/RWI/FAY) in the afternoon, with the sea
breeze potentially acting as a focus, though high-res guidance has a
large spread in how much coverage there will be, decreasing
confidence. A better chance of convection comes across the northern
TAF sites (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) in the evening hours from about 23z to
06z. So added PROB30 groups for this potential at all TAF sites,
with their timing based on where convection appears most likely,
starting earliest in the SE and latest in the NW. Strong gusty winds
and brief sub-VFR restrictions will be possible with any storms.
Otherwise, winds are expected to be generally from the SW around 5-
10 kts through the day.

Outlook: Expect widespread showers/storms Friday into Saturday, with
coverage decreasing from west to east Saturday night into Sunday.
Flight restrictions are expected Thursday night through Saturday and
possibly into Sunday morning, with mostly VFR and dry weather for
the rest of Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
August 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005
August 22: KRDU: 74/2017 KFAY: 75/2018

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NCZ024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Danco
AVIATION...Danco/CA